War, Environment, and Data: Environmental Impacts of the Iran–U.S.–Israel Conflict and Lessons from Gaza

Modern warfare increasingly produces quantifiable environmental impactsthat extend far beyond the battlefield. Recent military escalation involving Iran, Israel, the United States, and regional actors in the Persian Gulf illustrates how quickly armed conflict can generate environmental shocks affecting air quality, climate systems, ecosystems, and water resources. At the same time, the extensive environmental destruction documented in Gaza provides one of the clearest modern examples of how warfare can reshape entire ecological systems.

Today, these impacts can be measured using environmental metrics, satellite observations, atmospheric monitoring systems, geostatistical tools, and econometric modeling, allowing researchers to estimate the environmental footprint of conflict with increasing precision.

Air Pollution and Atmospheric Impacts of Strikes in Iran

Recent strikes targeting oil storage facilities and fuel depots in Tehrantriggered large fires that produced dense smoke clouds across the capital. Tehran, home to roughly 9 million residents and nearly 17 million in the wider metropolitan region, experienced severe air pollution episodes following these attacks.

Oil fires release a complex mixture of pollutants including:

• PM2.5 and PM10 particulate matter
• Sulfur dioxide (SO₂)
• Nitrogen oxides (NOx)
• Volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
• Black carbon (soot)
• Carbon dioxide (CO₂)

Environmental monitoring agencies track these pollutants using several key metrics:

Satellite instruments detect thermal anomalies and smoke dispersionin near real time. Atmospheric chemistry models then estimate the volume of emissions released from burning petroleum infrastructure.

Oil fires also produce large amounts of black carbon, one of the most powerful short-lived climate pollutants. Black carbon absorbs solar radiation and accelerates atmospheric warming. Similar environmental impacts occurred during the Gulf War oil fires, when hundreds of burning oil wells released enormous quantities of soot and greenhouse gases.

These pollution events are particularly concerning because Iran already suffers from severe air quality problems. Studies estimate that around 59,000 premature deaths per year in Iran are linked to air pollution, equivalent to approximately 160 deaths per day.

Carbon Emissions from Military Operations

Military operations themselves generate large amounts of greenhouse-gas emissions. Fighter aircraft, missile launches, naval fleets, armored vehicles, and logistical transport consume enormous volumes of fossil fuels.

Environmental researchers estimate the climate footprint of warfare using military carbon accounting, which measures fuel consumption and converts it into tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e).

Typical emissions from military equipment include:

Studies of recent conflicts in the region suggest that warfare can generate millions of tonnes of emissions within months, especially when reconstruction and debris removal are included.

Understanding how conflict-related emissions interact with climate systems and economic activity requires advanced statistical modeling. Techniques used in climate econometrics—such as those taught in the Econometrics for Climate Change: Modeling and Policy Analysis training program—allow researchers to estimate the causal relationships between environmental shocks, emissions, and economic systems.

Environmental Destruction in Gaza

The war in Gaza represents one of the most significant modern cases of environmental destruction caused by urban warfare. Satellite analysis and UN reports estimate that bombardment has generated about 39 million tonnes of rubble and debrisacross the Gaza Strip. This represents roughly 107 kilograms of debris per square meter.

The debris contains hazardous materials including:

• asbestos from damaged buildings
• heavy metals from industrial facilities
• unexploded ordnance
• toxic medical waste

These materials can contaminate soil, groundwater, and urban airfor many years.

Key environmental statistics from Gaza include:

Damage to wastewater treatment systems has caused large volumes of untreated sewage to flow into the Mediterranean Sea, threatening marine ecosystems and fisheries. Removing the debris itself will create additional environmental impacts. Estimates suggest that clearing rubble could require:

• 2.1 million truck journeys
• 18 million miles of transport
• over 90,000 tonnes of additional CO₂ emissions

Environmental Monitoring and Measurement Methods

Researchers today rely on a combination of satellite observation, environmental monitoring networks, and spatial data analysis to measure the environmental footprint of war.

Satellite systems provide high-resolution environmental data:

• Atmospheric Monitoring
• Urban monitoring stations measure:
• PM2.5 particulate pollution
• nitrogen dioxide levels
• sulfur dioxide emissions
• ozone concentration
  

Environmental scientists measure land degradation using:

• Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
• soil contamination levels
• agricultural productivity indicators
  

Marine environmental monitoring measures:

• hydrocarbon concentration in seawater
• oil spill extent detected by radar satellites
• fisheries productivity and biodiversity changes

Because many environmental impacts spread geographically—such as air pollution crossing borders or marine pollution spreading through currents—researchers increasingly rely on spatial analytical techniques. Training in such methods is provided in programs like the Spatial Econometrics and Geostatistics training offered by M&S Research Hub, where participants learn to analyze geo referenced environmental datasets, satellite imagery, and spatial spillover effects.

Long-Term Environmental Costs of War

The environmental consequences of modern conflicts can persist for decades.  In regions already facing climate stress—such as the Middle East—these environmental impacts may further exacerbate water scarcity, food insecurity, and climate vulnerability. The environmental damage observed in Gaza and the pollution generated by strikes on oil infrastructure in Iran demonstrate how warfare increasingly intersects with climate change, environmental security, and economic development. As environmental monitoring technologies continue to evolve, researchers and policymakers will rely increasingly on data-driven analysis, climate econometrics, and spatial modeling to better understand—and potentially mitigate—the ecological consequences of conflict.